Absentee Ballot Analysis

An analysis of absentee ballot requests by a University of Dayton history professor shows a significant shift in Republican enthusiasm since 2008.

Larry Schweikart  compared absentee ballot requests so far this year to those of four years ago. His review shows a 7-point swing in favor of the GOP. More Democrats than Republicans requested early ballots, but Democrats' percentage advantage has shifted from 33-19 in 2008 to 30-23 this year. Schweikart found some of the most significant swings in the state's large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift. The analysis assumes undeclared voters will split evenly between Republicans and Democrats.